Sunday, June 28, 2009

Chance

A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock Market & Just About Everything Else

Finally, a simple guide to probability that even I could follow. The chapters are very brief, and the book itself is only 160 pages long.
Some of the concepts discussed are:

Normal Curve - The bell is so ubiquitous it seems "a divine law of nature."

Inspection Paradox - Why buses take longer to arrive than they should, and why you and I will probably live longer than our expected lifespan.

Gambler's Ruin Theorem - In a game with even odds, the probability of losing against a much wealthier opponent is 100%.

Bayes's Theorem - An 18th century minister was so unnerved by a formula he discovered that he never showed it to anyone. It was found in a drawer after his death, and is now "immensely important...with far-reaching and completely unexpected implications..."

Other tidbits include:

• the number of times to shuffle cards to randomize their order (six)
• the number of people to date before choosing a partner (37% of the available pool)
• in legalized gambling, poker and sports betting offer the best chance of success
• the performance of the stock market over a short period of time resembles the movement of particles in a fluid (Brownian motion)

The book's cover resembles the back of a playing card.